Interpretation of the 2019 PV subsidy new policy: new installed capacity is expected to pick up
Date:2019-05-06Views:491Tags:PV subsidies, photovoltaic power plants, China solar energy
On the last day of April, the day before the May 1 holiday, the much-anticipated PV subsidy policy was finally introduced. According to the notice of the China Development and Reform Commission on improving the on-grid price mechanism of photovoltaic power generation (hereinafter referred to as the “Notice”), the newly-added centralized photovoltaic power plant guide price in the I~III resource area is determined to be 0.40 yuan per kWh (including tax, The same below), 0.45 yuan, 0.55 yuan; the "spontaneous use, the balance of the Internet" mode of industrial and industrial distributed subsidy standard is adjusted to 0.10 yuan per kWh; household distributed photovoltaic full power generation subsidy standard is adjusted to 0.18 yuan per kWh .
What does this subsidy standard mean? What is the trend in the market? Let's take a look together.
Centralized: Fully align with parity
According to the notice, starting from 2019, the on-grid tariff of centralized photovoltaic power plants has become a history, and has become a guide price. This has a lot to do with the competition configuration that began in 2019. The price of electricity is the price standard that exists in conjunction with the competitive allocation model. In a word, under the new bidding model, the centralized PV power plant project will be fully aligned with the evaluation project.
The most important role of guiding electricity prices is to limit the maximum electricity price to related projects, that is, the on-grid electricity price of new centralized photovoltaic power plants must not exceed the guidance price of the resource area. Specifically, the on-grid electricity price of centralized photovoltaic projects in the Class I resource area shall not exceed 0.40 yuan per kWh, the category II resource area shall not exceed 0.45 yuan, and the category III resource area shall not exceed 0.55 yuan.
Therefore, in the bidding mode, the on-grid price of a centralized power station will inevitably be lower than the guidance price. As the project with the lower price is more likely to receive subsidies, the relevant enterprises and owners will try to lower the price of the project as much as possible, so that the electricity price reported by the project will be infinitely close to the cost price. In the end, the on-grid tariff of centralized PV projects will continue to be close to the affordable Internet projects.
In fact, it is not the guiding price of electricity that determines the final on-grid price of centralized PV projects, but the fierce competition in the market. How to report the lowest price on the premise of guaranteeing the benefits is a problem that owners and related companies need to consider. It is foreseeable that the quotation of centralized PV projects will be mainly concentrated in the range of local coal-fired units benchmarking price and price, and the lower the price, the more likely it is to receive subsidies. Is there any situation where the final price is lower than the local coal-fired unit's benchmark on-grid tariff?
Regardless of whether this happens or not, the “Notice” has been taken into account, so it is stipulated that the price determined by the market competition method is within the local coal-fired unit benchmarking grid price (including desulfurization, denitrification, dust removal electricity price), by the local province. Level grid settlement; the higher part is subsidized by the China Renewable Energy Development Fund.
To put it bluntly, when in the market competition mode, if the price of a project in a certain place is already lower than the benchmark price of coal-fired units, then the area already has the conditions for a cheaper Internet access, and then no longer need subsidies, so the power of the project The proceeds will be settled directly from the local grid and no subsidized funds will be required. The electricity price of such projects is even lower than that of the cheap Internet projects, or it is the first "low-cost Internet project."
Stock items: some can receive subsidies
It is worth mentioning that in order to solve the legacy of the "531" last year, the "notice" reflects greater sincerity:
China's energy authorities have approved the centralized financial power plants that have been included in the scale of financial subsidies and have identified the project owners, but have not yet determined the on-grid tariffs (except for the invalidation of project indicators), connected to the grid before June 30, 2019 (inclusive), online The electricity price shall be implemented in accordance with the "Notice on Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2018" (Development and Reform Energy  No. 823); if it is connected to the grid after July 1 (inclusive), the on-grid price shall be implemented in accordance with the guidance price stipulated in this Notice.
According to the "Notice on Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2018" (Development and Reform Energy  No. 823), the benchmarks for the on-grid tariffs of newly-operated PV power plants are adjusted to 0.5 per kWh in the resource categories of Class I, II and III resources. Yuan, 0.6 yuan, 0.7 yuan (including tax); the subsidy standard for distributed photovoltaic power generation projects in the "spontaneous use, surplus electricity online" mode is adjusted to 0.32 yuan per kWh (including tax), the distribution of "full online" mode The photovoltaic power generation project is executed according to the price of the photovoltaic power station in the resource area.
In summary, in 2019, some projects can enjoy subsidy standards of 0.5 yuan, 0.6 yuan, and 0.7 yuan per kWh according to the resource area. There are three conditions: First, the scale of financial subsidies has been included and the project owner has been identified; second, the on-grid price has not been determined; third, it is connected to the grid before June 30 (inclusive).
In other words, this part of the project does not need to participate in the bidding, you can enjoy the subsidy standard of 2018. Projects that meet the first two conditions above should be started quickly. This should be the last centralized PV project that can receive subsidies without bidding.
Industrial and commercial distribution: whether the bidding is doubtful
The industrial and commercial distribution of the centralized photovoltaic project and the household photovoltaic project is slightly embarrassing. Such projects have great development space, and most of them are distributed in large-scale manufacturing plants. These plants themselves need to consume a lot of electricity, so the policy supports these projects "spontaneous use, the rest of the Internet." Projects with full Internet access are executed at the price of the centralized PV power plant in the resource area.
Despite this, the subsidy standard for the “spontaneous use, margin online” project has also dropped to 0.10 yuan per kWh. It should be noted that in the last electricity price policy, the subsidy standard for such projects remained at 0.32 yuan per kWh, a reduction of 68.8%.
The most puzzling thing is that the entire "Notice" does not clearly indicate that the industrial and commercial distributed projects need to participate in the bidding before they can get subsidies. The statement that “the total power generation subsidy standard is adjusted to 0.10 yuan per kWh” seems to make people feel that there is no need to bid for industrial and commercial distribution.
However, according to the “2019 Photovoltaic Power Generation Construction Management Work Plan”, in addition to China’s clear policy provisions, ordinary photovoltaic power plants, industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic power generation projects, and special projects and demonstration projects implemented by Chinese organizations are in principle By organizing projects through competitive allocation methods such as bidding, China determines the subsidy list by sorting according to the amount of subsidies.
The author believes that although the distributed subsidy standard for industry and commerce has dropped to 0.10 yuan per kWh, it is expected that such projects will still require competitive allocation, and specific details will be made after the subsequent bidding rules are clear.
Household projects: grabbing has begun
Compared with other projects, household projects have a unique advantage. First, there is no need to participate in competitive allocation, and second, there is a separate subsidy. Although the subsidy standard of 0.18 yuan per kWh has declined, it is still the highest subsidy in addition to poverty alleviation projects.
What makes the PV market crazy is that household projects can be included in the 2019 financial subsidy scale as long as they are included in the 2019 financial subsidy scale. What kind of projects can be included in the scale of financial subsidies in 2019?
1. For household projects that have been built into the grid but have not yet been included in the scope of Chinese subsidies, they can be voluntarily declared to the local grid companies, and the starting point for the subsidy calculation will be used when the local authorities review and confirm the entry of the project into the subsidy list. Specifically, the household projects of the stock can enjoy a subsidy of 0.18 yuan per kWh, but it should be declared as soon as possible, otherwise the indicator will soon be robbed.
2. New household photovoltaic project. In order to get subsidies, this part of the project will need to grab time, because according to the latest policy, provincial power grid enterprises will announce the new grid connection last month before the 10th of each month (including the new audit confirmation file has been completed before the network is released) However, the projects that are not included in the scope of subsidies in China) and the list of household PV installations and projects that have been newly added to the grid in the same year, and submit relevant information to the China Energy Bureau and the China Renewable Energy Information Management Center before the 15th of each month. When the cumulative installed capacity of the newly added grids in the year ending last month exceeds the annual installed capacity of new projects that can be arranged in the current year, the last day of the month is the deadline for household photovoltaic grid connection that can enjoy the Chinese subsidy policy for the current year.
Specifically, the sooner the household project is connected to the grid, the more likely it is to receive a subsidy of 0.18 yuan per kWh. Once the total number of new grids exceeds the annual planned total, there will be a one-month buffer period. After the completion of this month, the household projects connected to the grid can no longer be included in the 2019 financial subsidy scale, nor can they enjoy the 2019 subsidy policy.
This “first build and first come” policy means that competition for household projects has begun. As early as the publication of the "2019 Photovoltaic Power Generation Construction Management Work Plan" draft, the author predicted that the household use project will trigger a wave of rushing in the first half of the year. At present, the rush to install for household use has already begun.
The poverty alleviation project has maintained its special status as always, and the corresponding on-grid tariffs of the I~III resource areas remain unchanged, and are still implemented at 0.65 yuan, 0.75 yuan and 0.85 yuan per kWh respectively.
In the context of competitive allocation, the front runner project has lost its meaning of existence. The fourth batch of front-runner projects will no longer appear.
In addition, according to the previous policy, photovoltaic power generation projects listed in the scope of China's subsidies should be completed and connected to the grid at the end of the quarter when the declared production time is expected. If the grid is overdue, the grid-connected electricity price subsidy will be paid for each quarter. Reduce 0.01 yuan / kWh. The "Notice" did not mention the reduction of subsidy standards on a quarterly basis, mainly because the policy was released too late this year, and it is no longer appropriate to reduce subsidy standards for project construction. Related projects must enjoy the subsidy policy, and it is inevitable to set off the tide of rushing before the end of the year. In this case, the possibility of overdue is low.
In general, the centralized PV projects that are in line with the affordable Internet projects and the industrial and commercial projects with the subsidized standards have dropped. This means a trend: the subsidy of 3 billion yuan will support the project scale exceeding expectations.
The lower the price of the project, the lower the subsidy consumed, and the remaining subsidies can give more projects. For subsidy projects with constant subsidies, the subsidy funds are not within 3 billion yuan. Therefore, from these perspectives, the scale of projects supported by the subsidy of 3 billion yuan will exceed expectations. This also means that the new installed capacity of PV in 2019 is expected to exceed expectations.
According to data released by the Energy Bureau, China's new PV installations in the first quarter of 2019 were 5.2 GW, which was much lower than in previous years. This was mainly due to the delay in the policy. After the current policy is basically clear, the affordable online project and household photovoltaic project have been launched. In the second quarter and the second half of the year, the domestic market is expected to usher in multiple rushing surges. The new installed capacity in 2019 is expected to be the same as in 2018. There is rise.
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